What to expect from Iran?

How low can oil go? For Canadians, the plunging price of oil means direct economic pain in the west, along with rising prices for food and other imports as our dollar drops with it. Those looking for clues about whether 2016 will bring a price recovery have largely focused on how the U.S.-Saudi oil-price war will play out. But attention needs to be paid to the rapidly changing situation inside Iran.
We hear about Iran mainly in connection with external factors: the nuclear deal struck last year, regional hostilities, its emerging alliance with Russia. But a closer look at Iran’s internal economic picture sheds light on the role it will play in keeping the price of oil depressed in coming years.
Iran was subject to intense sanctions for its nuclear program during 2010-2013. The sanctions hurt Iran’s economy badly and limited its ability to export crude oil. It became isolated from the international financial system and international trade, and many of its properties and assets were frozen. To deal with mounting deficits, the Iranian government slashed infrastructure budgets and administrative costs, adding to already double-digit unemployment figures.
Inflation had already been accelerating due in part to a botched subsidy-reform plan by former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He cut subsidies on food and energy and planned to redistribute half of the saved money to poor people. However, due to a lack of data and other implementation problems, the government ended up simply giving cash to all households, as it could not identify who qualified for compensation. Depreciation of its currency, the rial, due to the decreased oil exports, exacerbated this problem, pushing inflation to 40 per cent.

In 2013, President Hassan Rouhani was elected on a promise of better relationships with other countries. The dramatic crash of oil prices in 2014 amplified the pressure on him to fix the economy. Mr. Rouhani made his first priority to cut inflation. In particular, his government controlled the fluctuations in the exchange rate to prevent depreciation against the U.S. dollar, and implemented extensive, contractionary policies to decrease the monetary base.

Inflation fell to 16 per cent, which was an impressive achievement considering where it had been not long before. But the policies intensified the existing recession. Iran is now suffering from weak domestic demand, in part because consumers are deferring spending based on the expectation that prices will drop due to monetary reforms and the recent lifting of sanctions.

Thus, the next challenge facing the Iranian government is to boost domestic demand, which the nuclear pact and the removal of sanctions should help bring about. The lack of sanctions will allow Iran to get its oil back to market, and the government intends to dramatically increase its capacity to export crude. Although this may further depress the world oil price, the net effect will be positive for Iran’s economy. In addition, the absence of sanctions will allow Iran to attract increased foreign direct investment, upgrade its oil fields and take aim at decreasing the unemployment rate.

So for 2016, all signs point to Iran rapidly attempting to get oil production up to full capacity as it puts the era of sanctions and isolation behind it. Even if Saudi Arabia begins to relent in its price war with the United States, and even if high-cost producers in North America reduce capacity, Iran is waiting to fill the gap.

Investors looking for clues about how the price of oil will move this year need to look past the external strategic issues that dominate news from Iran, and look at its internal economic priorities. These suggest that Iran will be a source of downward pressure on the world oil price over the next few years, which will likely make an already bad situation worse for the oil markets.

Despite Sanctions Relief, Iran’s Prospects Look Bleak

The international community has just lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for major nuclear concessions under the deal signed last summer. But fresh lows in oil prices and poor economic performance in Iran mean that Iran will not benefit economically in the ways that critics fear or deal supporters hope.

The architects of the nuclear deal with Iran lauded 'Implementation Day,' on which the sanctions were relieved, as a watershed moment for Iran. Overnight, the United States and the European Union rolled back restrictions on Iran’s international banking activities, oil and refined product sales, and its auto, ports, insurance, shipping and airline sectors. Iran is now allowed back into elite economic circles after decades of international exclusion.

But this could hardly come during worse economic circumstances for Iran. After losing two-thirds of their value in the last eighteen months, oil prices just dipped to eleven-year lows below $30 per barrel. Analysts expect low prices for a long time, which will make it hard for resource-dependent Iran to rake in receipts. Now that sanctions have dropped, Iran plans to expand oil production by an additional 500,000 barrels per day immediately—and expand by up to 1 million barrels per day within a year, adding to a market currently awash in 1.5 million barrels per day of excess oil.

But Iran’s formidable oil supply competitors, Saudi Arabia and Russia, are not interested in making room for Iran in the market. Saudi Arabia in particular has been pumping at record high levels expressly for the purpose of pushing other producers out of the market. Moreover, political hostilities between Iran and Saudi Arabia, leading OPEC producers, make it impossible for the cartel to contemplate cooperation to increase prices and profits.

The poor economic conditions in Iran are another strike against the country. Transparency International ranks Iran 136 out of 175 in its corruption index, and Iran tops the Basel Institute of Governance list of countries with money laundering and terrorist financing risk. Additionally, the World Bank puts Iran at 118 out of 189 in its annual ‘Ease of Doing Business’ report.

As if this dismal score card was not enough, the IMF offers a grim outlook for Iran’s economy. Last month, it forecast GDP growth for 2015/2016 around zero, an increase in unemployment by about 1.5%, and a 10% drop in imports. The IMF has also called attention to troubling public debt and a banking system in disarray.

The slew of risks associated with doing business with Iran will keep international banks on the sidelines. Significantly, many of the well-capitalized, sophisticated European banks have been collectively fined billions of dollars for U.S. sanctions busting and are barred from going back to Iran. Part of the settlement these banks made with the U.S. Department of Justice involved a commitment not to expand activities with the rogue state.

In A Rich Man’s World: Iranian currency flows into city

After the removal of sanctions against Iran by the international community, the exchange of Iranian currency has started in Peshawar. In only one week, the rate of exchange of Iranian rial (IRR) has increased by 33%. Previosuly in Peshawar, IRR 10 million was equal to PKR 32,000. However, the exchange rate currently stands at IRR 10 million equal to PKR 46,000. The sanction on Iran was lifted last week.

Russia, Iran to ditch dollar for ruble, rial

Russia said on Saturday that it is preparing to switch to national currencies in mutual trade with Iran. 

Russian Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov said the currency switch policy comes as trade between the two countries is expected to see a significant surge.

"Among other things, we do not rule out the possibility of settlements in rubles and rials, presuming that our trade volumes will be growing," Manturov has been quoted as saying in an interview with the local TV channel Rossiya 1.   

"Respectively, Iranian banks will acquire rubles that they will be able to use to pay for our products," he said.

Manturov had held negotiations on using the national currencies in bilateral trade during his visit to Tehran earlier this week, Interfax reported.

Last Tuesday, Valiollah Seif, the governor of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), was quoted by the media as saying that Tehran has completed the preparations for establishing a joint bank account with Russia to facilitate trade between the two countries in their own currencies.

Seif had reportedly told a visiting Russian delegation that both Tehran and Moscow need to create a mechanism to connect their banking sectors, stressing that this is necessary for bolstering trade ties between the two countries.

The idea to set up a joint bank account between Iran and Russia to handle trade in rials and rubles was first revealed by Iran’s Ambassador to Moscow Mehdi Sanaei earlier this year.
Later, Assadollah Asgaroladi, a veteran Iranian merchant and the chairman of Iran-Russia Joint Chamber of Commerce, said the bank could break the domination of Western currencies over bilateral exchanges and that it would eventually open a new chapter in trade relations between Tehran and Moscow.

In March, Iran and Russia signed a basic agreement to create a joint regulatory body to oversee interbank financial transactions between the two countries.
The agreement - that was signed between the Iranian and Russian central banks – took both countries one step closer toward the establishment of the promised joint bank - which is believed to have been specifically designed to help dodge the effects of US-led sanctions on the two countries.

Russia, Iran to open joint bank for ruble-rial settlements

Tehran is waiting for a reply from the Russian Central Bank to a proposal on opening joint banks to make mutual payments in national currencies, Iranian Ambassador to Russia Mehdi Sanaei said.
"Iran is interested in stepping up economic and banking cooperation with Russia and in opening joint accounts and joint banks to make mutual payments in rubles and rials. I hope the Central Bank of Russia will take substantial steps in response to Iran's initiatives," Sanaei said on a LiveJournal blog.

Did Obama Just Make Iran's Brutal Dicatorship Stronger?

The term Koranic refers to one of Prophet Mohammed's successful raids on a Meccan caravan in the early days of Islam.

Rouhani claims the deal represents the greatest diplomatic victory in Islamic history. Leaving aside the hyperbole, a fixture of the mullah's rhetorical arsenal, Rouhani has reason to celebrate.

If not quite moribund, as some analysts claim, the Islamic Republic had been in a rough patch for several years.

For more than a year the Iranian Government was unable to pay for some of the 5.2 Million Public Secotr employees, most notably teachers, petrochemical workers, and students on bursaries. This led to numerous strikes.

Deprived of urgently needed investment, the IRanian oil industry was pushed to the edge with its biggest oil fields, notably Bibi Hakimeh and Maround, producing less than half their capacity.

Between the years of 2012 and 2015, Iran lost 25% of it's share in the global oil market.

Sanctions and a lack of investments also mean that large chunks of the Iranian industry, depending on imported parts, went under as well. In 2015 Iran lost on avrage 1,000 jobs a day.

Last month, the nations currency, the Iranian Rial, fell to an all time record low while negative economic growth was forecast for a third consecutive year.

Having increased the military budget by 21%, Rouhani was forced to delay presentation of his new budget for the Iranian New Year which began on March 21.

Against that background Obama rode to the rescue by pushing through a "deal" designed to ease pressure on Iran in exchange for nothing but a verbal promise from Tehran. Here is some of what Obama said.

• Dropped demands that Iran reshape its nuclear program to make sure it can never acquire a military dimension. As head of Iranian Atomic Energy Agency Ali Akbar Salehi has said: “Our nuclear project remains intact. The ‘deal’ does not prevent us from doing what we were doing.”
• He suspended a raft of sanctions and pressured the European Union and the United Nations to do the same.
• He injected a badly needed $1.7 billion into Iranian economy by releasing assets frozen under President Jimmy Carter and kept as possible compensation for Americans held hostage at different times. The cash enabled Rouhani to start paying some unpaid salaries in Iran while financing Hezbollah branches and helping the Assad regime in Syria.
• Obama released another tranche of $30 billion, enabling Rouhani to present his new budget with a reduced deficit at 14% while increasing the military-security budget yet again, by 4.2%.
• Banking sanctions were set aside to let Iran import 19,000 tons of American rice to meet shortages on the eve of Iranian New Year when consumption reaches its peak.
• Obama’s lovefest with the mullahs helped mollify the Khomeinist regime’s image as a sponsor of international terror and a diplomatic pariah.

What could possibly have been the rationale behind Obama's determination to help the mullahs out of the hole they had dug themselves into?

Some cite Obama's alleged belief that the US has been an "imperialist power", bullying weaker nations and must make amends. 

Others however say it's a suggested tactic to strengthen "moderates" within the Iranian regime who, if assured that the US does not seek regime change, might lead the nation towards a change of behavior.

Whatever the reason, what Obama has done could be best described as appeasement.

 In classical appeasement you promise an adversary not to oppose some of his moves, for example the annexaction of Czechoslovakia, but you do not offer him actual financial or dimplomatic support. Obama however has gone beyond that.

In addition to saving Iran from running out of money, on the diplomatic front he has endorsed Tehran's scenario for saving Syria.

Secretary of State John Kerry talked of Iran as "the regional power" to the chagrin of Washington's Middle East Allies.

Obama's imaginary "moderates" are not in good shape. The concil of Guardians that decides who could run for election next month has disqualified 99% of the so called "moderates" ensuring the emergence of a new Islamic parliament and assembly of expeerts dominated by radicals as never before.

 Meanwhile, the annual " End Of America" festival, yes that is a real thing, runs February 1 to 10 is held with greater gump than before.

With more resources at it's disposal Tehran is intensifying it's "exporing the revolution" campaign. Last week it announced the creation of a new Hezbollah branch in Turkey, and for the first time, made the existance of a branch in Iraq public. Tajikistan was also publicly added to the markets where the Khomeinist revolution should be expoted.

There are no "moderates" in Tehran, and the Islamic Republic cannot be reformed out of it's nature. For the remainder of Obama's term last, expect a more aggressive Islamic Republic.

So did the Mullahs deceive Obama? Nope, this was all Obama's idea.

The History Of The Iranian Rial 100,000 Banknote

Many of you who are just now getting interested in the Iranian Rial currency don't know all that much about it. In this post we'll educate you a bit on the history of the Iranian Rial 100,000 denomination note.

The chart below which is from Currency Liquidator shows the history of the Iranian Rial Currency. You can learn more about the note as well as the security features by visiting the page on their site here.

Iran must tread softly in making a return to international market

Greeks and Persians are friends again. On Friday, Hellenic Petroleum became the first European company to agree to buy Iranian oil since the lifting of sanctions, one of many businesses thirsting for opportunities in the country. 

The success or failure of such companies will be the hinge both for Iran’s domestic politics and the policy of engagement.

Iran was never entirely out of the market, even during the period of most intense sanctions from 2012 up to the start of this year. But a welter of restrictions imposed by the US, UN and EU restricted oil sales, financial transactions, insurance and shipping. Iranian oil exports, that tumbled from 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to a low of less than 1 million bpd, may now recover to more than 2 million bpd by the end of the year.

However, Iran faces a difficult external environment. Accounting for inflation, oil prices are at their lowest since 1999, and it is precisely the prospect of its higher exports that has led to the latest slump.
Even a partial realisation of Iran’s own plans will put further downwards pressure on other commodities, such as petrochemicals. Numerous half-completed projects litter the coast around Assaluyeh, terminus for South Pars, the world’s largest gasfield, shared with Qatar. Only some will attract investors and technology, but this will still mean a major boost in output, largely overlooked by forecasters.

The government has hopes for mining, with the world’s second-largest copper mine, and the largest reserves of zinc, as well as iron and other minerals. But prices for metals are almost as dismal as for oil, as Chinese growth has slowed down.

The Iranian president Hassan Rouhani’s government has to tread carefully. Politicians need to capitalise on post-sanctions euphoria, ahead of February’s elections for the parliament and the Assembly of Experts – where reformists face a kind of pre-emptive hard-line backlash.
It is impossible to show any tangible economic results in that short time, so the best the pragmatic-reformist camp can hope for is a surge in Keynes’ optimistic “animal spirits”, buoyed by some headline deal-making.

Most of the reported US$100 billion of frozen funds Iran will now be able to access has already been allocated to domestic projects, recapitalising its banks and to foreign bills. In any case, bringing it home all at once would fuel inflation and excessive strengthening of the rial.

From 1992 to 2009, a period including relative economic openness under the presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami, Iran attracted $34.6 billion of foreign direct investment in total across all sectors. Now the energy sector alone is said to require $500bn over the decade to 2025. Even allowing for some internal funding, this suggests some $12bn to $32bn of foreign investment per year, not to mention the vast requirements in transportation, telecommunications, hotels, health care, environmental protection and many other areas.

The country will therefore inevitably fall well short of its ambitious goals. Even partial success hangs on attracting foreign investment. This involves the usual steps of improving transparency, corporatising state companies, and passing investor-friendly legislation. True privatisation – not the murky, undervalued sales to insiders that typified the Ahmadinejad era – can help to rebuild a constituency within Iran that is not dependent on government largesse, and benefits from constructive relations with the rest of the world.

But such a transformation is vulnerable to the grip of Revolutionary Guards-linked entities on key parts of the economy, and the chance for hardliners to blow up minor incidents into international crises. Its Gulf neighbours are understandably concerned about Tehran’s regional influence, and its continuing support for Bashar Al Assad’s murderous regime in Syria.

The regional states, as well as the Americans and Europeans, have to sail a perilous path – confronting Iran politically where it threatens, while building mutual benefits through diplomatic compromises and trade.

What is the Exchange Rate for the Iranian Rial to the US Dollar?

What Is The Iranian Rials Exchange Rate?

The official exchange rate of the Iranian Rial to the US Dollar is 0.000033. What that means is that 1 Iranian Rial is worth 0.000033 of a single US Dollar.

With the Iranian Rial most buyers are probably used to hearing the rate quoted in price per million. At the offical exchange rate of 0.000033, a million Iranian Rials would cost a buyer $33.13.

With that said, the current going price by most currency brokers and dealers as well as on eBay and other sites is anywhere from $120 to $300 per million, quite a markup.

Now it goes without saying "exotic" currencies tend to have a higher markup. Some currencies like the Costa Rican Colone for example are very difficult to acquire and even on the wholesale markets can cost large companies upwards of 17% to buy even when buying in bulk. More common currencies like the Euro for example can often be had for about a tenth of a percent.

As you can see the Iranian Rial is being sold at quite a hefty markup. As with anything however, the market determines price and even eBay listings which start at 0.99 cents tend to wind up selling for about $100 or more so that shows us it's not just the currency brokers price gouging, the market is actually willing to pay that price.

It will be interesting to see what the future holds for the Iranian Rial. Will it explode in value, will it slowly go up in value? Will the country dramatically change and roll out a new currency? Only time will tell.

Currency exchange scandal by PayPal, Amazon and eBay With Millions in Iranian Rial Sales

Just stumbled upon this Youtube video from several months back. Recently, this past weekend the US lifted sanctions against Iran, making it legal to buy and sell Iranian Rial currency. A few months back however that wasn't the case. Here is a video which claims Paypal, Amazon and eBay violated sanctions. Is that true? Who knows. It would seem odd companies that big with attourneys and resources at their disposal as well as a strict selling platform it would seem odd they would allow this if it wasn't legal. Regardless, today,  it's clear US sanctions are lifted which occured this past weekend.

The Idea of Cutting Zeroes off the Iranian Rial Currency

Will Iran decide to cut some zeroes or LOP the Iranian Rial Currency?

Frank26 Talks About The Iranian Rial Currency

Heard about the recent lifting of sanctions on Iran by the USA and most of the rest of the world? Wondering what it means for the future of the Iranian Rial currency?


Watch the video below and hear what Frank26 has to say?

Is the Iranian Rial making a come-back against the US Dollar?

What does the future hold for the Iranian Rial currency? Only time will tell. Watch this great video which discusses if the Iranian Rial currency is making a come-back against the US Dollars with the recent liftings of US and World Sanctions

Why I Like The Iranian Rial Currency

Seems there's not that much info out there about the Iranian Rial currency, so were here to provide you with news, updates, and inform you about Iran's currency the Rial.


In this video below Currency365, discusses why he likes the Iranian Rial.


Check it out...

Where Can You Buy Iranian Rial? Where and how to buy the Iranian Rial Currency?

A common question on social media and forums these days is where can you buy the Iranian Rial currency?

For some time eBay and Amazon were one of the few places to buy them. It seems every day more and more currency dealers are offering this currency.

Iranian Rial Currency

Though we havn't checked every single site on the list, these sites below which are all currency dealers which specialize in the more exotic currencies like Vietnam Dong, Iraqi Dinar, Zimbabwe Dollars and other exotic currencies are a good place to check.


Possible Places To Buy Iranian Rial

1. Travelex.Com
2. eBay.Com
3. BuyIRR.Com
4. DealofBuyDinar.Com
5. BuyIQD.Com
6. DinarInc.Com
7. BuyIraqiDinarHere.Com
8. SafeDinar.Com
9. CurrencyLiquidator.Com
10. DinarTrade.Com
11. BuyNewDinar.Com

Iran to Unify Exchange Rates with the US Dollar?

Is it true the Iranian Rial is set to unify exchange rates with the US Dollar?

Are Banks Selling the Iranian Rial Currency?

With the recent liftings of US sanctions against Iran many Americans are wanting to buy Iranian Rial currency. Where can you buy it?


Are banks selling the Iranian Rial currency? Or is it like the Iraqi Dinar where few if any banks deal with this currency.


Companies like Travelex Currency Exchange the largest currency dealer in the US and possibly the world has been running Adwords ads for weeks buying the keyword for Rial, however they don't yet seem to be selling it.


Watch this video to find out if any banks are selling the Iranian Rial Currency.

Are Iranian Rials Legal to Purchase? And Should You Buy Them?

There has been a big controversy online over the legality of the Iranian Rial for a few months now. Some claiming it was still under sanctions, yet eBay, Amazon and various websites have sold the Iranian Rial currency for quite some time. Though there hasn't really been a clear answer it seems finally as of this past weekend all sanctions were officially lifted.



This video here discusses whether your allowed to purchase the Iranian Rial and if so should you buy them?